The flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes a rise in August to $18,181 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+9.5%) in the three months to August 2020. It was the first positive reading on economic growth after five consecutive postings of negative growth rates, ranging from (-5.0%) to (-33.5%), the result of a $2.5 trillion fall in real GDP.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the monthly predictive intelligence national accounting system, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions “…a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 91.9% in August, down from five consecutive readings of recession risk at 100% …”, said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest, and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary vintage of August 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, September 17, 2020.
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