Zero Probability of Future U.S. Recession

e-forecasting.com’s economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite economic barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and system-modeled predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in December, following an increase of 1.3 percent in November.

Five of the seven components – individually modeled – had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading economic barometer, led by manufacturers’ orders and technological progress, commonly called labor productivity.

Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for a future, i.e. upcoming, recession. Visualization of this month’s findings show “…a zero probability of a forthcoming recession in the next six to nine months, compared with a reading of 99.7 percent seven months ago, May 2020,” said professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.


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