America’s real monthly˗GDP™ jumped at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent in March,” said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief, in highlights released today for the preliminary (second) monthly GDP update. Unpublished quantitative, not media-driven opinion surveys, monthly data, “reveal solid gains in GDP expenditures in March, driven by huge government assistance payments – an unthinkable 59 percent increase in personal income – filling out growth numbers in output during the first three months of 2021, to be as good as in the last quarter of 2020,” Simos concluded, quoting from BEA’s first quarter press release that “full economic effects…cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate…because the impacts…cannot be separately identified.”
For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+6.4%) in the three months to March 2021 from the previous period, three months to December 2020. To put current growth into perspective, “March’s percent change in monthly-GDP™ is (+3.5 percent points) above six-decade, 1959-2020, average long-term growth rate of (+2.9%).”
e˗forecasting.com’s predictive intelligence econometric model, not surprisingly, visualizes in real time, “…the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 0.2% in March 2021, down from 9.6% in February 2021.” When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides the first signals of an upcoming recession in the national economy.
In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator – seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 – increased by an annual rate of (+6.4%) in March to an index reading of 116.2. In Fed-watch words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, “…inflation for what America produces, or America buys, runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+6.4%),” asserted e˗forecasting.com’s Fed-watcher.
The next issue of U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring the third (final) estimate for March, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, May 2, 2021. Subscribers receive the Digest and data history, 1959-present, one workday before the press release day.
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