In the current travel landscape, tourism professionals recognise that the situation can change from one day to another as governments change who can travel in and out of a country. This results in the issue of being unable to forecast because, with no historical trends, no forecasting model can truly make accurate predictions. So, how can you get a sense of the future if none of the traditional travel forecasting models works?
This article originally appeared on ForwardKeys.
In general terms, forecasts are predictions based on past and present data and most commonly by an analysis of trends. In the current travel landscape, tourism professionals recognise that the situation can change from one day to another as governments change who can travel in and out of a country. This results in the issue of being unable to forecast because, with no historical trends, no forecasting model can truly make accurate predictions. So, how can you get a sense of the future if none of the traditional travel forecasting models works?
1. Be specific about your business needs!
The first question is what do you really want to know? In some cases, forecasts and future-looking data are used interchangeably, even though we are talking about two quite different things.
For example, at ForwardKeys we continually monitor if certain policy decisions result in a change in demand, like whenever the UK (United Kingdom) puts a destination on the amber or green list. In this case, we look at our Actual Air Tickets and “On the book” data, as these include future bookings and give an immediate overview of the impact.
Another option is to examine the future scheduled airline seat capacity as a proxy for future travel, given that this is what planes the airline companies are planning to fly, when and where to. A pandemic challenge, however, is that airlines have been extremely fast in changing their flights depending on the current demand, which makes it unreliable as a long-term forecast method.
2. K.I.S.S and make it better with one comprehensive data provider
The boom of data providers has not simplified the matter of picking the right fit for your business needs. That is why the K.I.S.S principle is a sage strategy to follow – data providers and data itself should make your life easier, not harder.
ForwardKeys is a reputable data company with firm expertise in air ticketing data offered in various formats and datasets. The flexibility of the datasets means you can monitor live trends as they take place via issued tickets to even long-term planning via the forecast tools as well.
“We get that as there is a lot of data options out there so it can be overwhelming and confusing,” adds Goldberg.
However, historical data has lost its relevancy and importance as Covid-19 volatility has wiped out that predictability built into forecasting models. Therefore, ForwardKeys has now built a state-of-the-art and completely new algorithm that bases its forecasts not on these historical trends, but on the scheduled airline capacity and future bookings to make a reasonable estimation of the number of people that will really travel.
“We are applying artificial intelligence to keep improving the forecasting algorithm, as we know that the scheduled airline capacity is quite unstable now with the last-minute changes and flight cancellations,” says Goldberg.
“What we are creating is ground-breaking and a big step forward in accurately displaying future trends – unlike anything else that is available in the market!”
Modelling forecasts in the times of Covid-19 has been a challenge with a few glitches in the middle due to airline volatility and global instability, but ForwardKeys is determined to future proof your business strategy by offering the most trusted and reliable travel forecasts in the market.