America’s Economic Leading Analytic Shocking?
America's economic Leading Analytic “…fell in January after 20 consecutive months of positive growth,” said UNH Professor Evangelos Otto Simos (in exile), editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest. The decline in the leading economic barometer “was led by extraordinary increase in consumers’ pessimism about the future…,” Professor Simos added.
In addition to consumers, two more of the seven predictive analytics – which make up e‒forecasting.com's leading economic barometer, eLA™ – have had a negative or zero contribution to our America's factual predictor in December: stock prices, and Technological Change in Manufacturing.
Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenarios and detect the level of risk involved on the timing business decisions are made, “…probabilistic thinking visualized in January 2022 a probability of 15 percent for the economy to be moving to a stagnation phase of its business cycle in the near future, compared to a reading of 5 percent in November, and 6.5 percent in December; … high risk executives may consider January a turning point…” Professor Simos put forward.
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Categories: Trends