Solid Growth in the Second Half of 2018 for US Hoteliers

Future business activity in U.S. hotels rose in April according to the latest reading of the Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator.  e−forecasting.com’s HIL, a composite of nine predictive analytics which gauges future monthly overall business conditions for U.S. hoteliers, increased by 0.4% in April to 138.8, following an increase of 0.3% in March.  The index is set to equal 100 in 2010.

Chart - Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator April 2018“The probability of the hotel industry entering into recession in the near-term, which is detected in real-time from HIL with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 1.2% in April, down from 1.3% in March,” said Maria Sogard, CEO at e­forecasting.com. “As a result, the probability that the U.S. Hotel Industry will be in the expansion phase of its business cycle in the near-term marked 98.8% in April, higher than March’s reading of 98.7%.”  Maria added.                                                                                        

“Five of the forward looking predictive analytics of business activity that comprise Hotel Industry Leading (HIL) Indicator had a positive contribution to its change in April: Jobs Market; Hotel Profitability; Foreign Demand; New Orders; Vacation Barometer;  Four indicators of future business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIL’s change in April: Hotel Worker Hours; Yield Curve; Oil Prices; Housing Activity; ” said Evangelos Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and series editor for predictive analytics databases at e-forecasting.com.

e-forecasting.com, an international research and predictive intelligence consulting firm, offers disruptive predictive analytics of the economic and business environment using proprietary, real-time information content to produce customized solutions for what’s next.

For more media content contact: Contact:  Judy Curran, judy.curran@e-forecasting.com